ERBIL– Israeli intelligence agencies are increasingly alarmed by what they describe as a “developing threat” from Iran-backed militias entrenched in Iraq, warning that the country may soon serve as a forward base for coordinated missile, drone, and even potential ground assaults against Israel.
According to a detailed report by the Israeli outlet Walla, both the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Mossad have begun treating Iraq as a new operational theater for Iran’s regional network. Israeli military planners are reportedly modeling scenarios that include long-range missile and UAV attacks, as well as the unprecedented possibility of a ground maneuver through Syria toward Israel’s border with Jordan.
A Shifting Battlefield
The warnings come amid a broader strategic realignment in the region. The United States recently appointed Mark Savaya as Special Envoy to Iraq, signaling a tougher stance toward Iran’s influence in Baghdad. Savaya, a Chaldean-American businessman, has vowed to restore Iraq’s sovereignty and dismantle what Washington calls “malign external interference.”
Together, these developments point to Iraq’s rapid emergence as a focal point in the intensifying rivalry between the U.S.–Israel axis and Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
Iran’s Expanding Arsenal in Iraq
Israeli analysts see two primary threat vectors emanating from Iraq. The first—and most immediate—is the potential for missile and drone strikes launched by Iranian-backed militias, mirroring tactics used during the “Swords of Iron War.” These groups, operating under shifting aliases, have already demonstrated the ability to hit Israeli targets from afar.
The second—and more concerning—possibility involves a cross-border ground incursion. The IDF has reportedly conducted exercises simulating a force moving from Iraq through Syria and advancing toward Israel’s Jordanian frontier—an area long considered secure.
Reinforcing these fears, Israeli intelligence has tracked heightened coordination between Tehran and its Iraqi proxies. The commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, Ismail Qaani, recently visited Baghdad to meet with militia leaders—a move interpreted as a prelude to more organized operations.
The Axis of Proxies
At the core of this network is Kata'ib Hezbollah, described by Israeli intelligence as the most powerful of Iran’s Iraqi militias. Officially part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), it wields advanced UAVs and long-range rockets while maintaining significant political influence in Baghdad. Its logistical routes from Iraq into Syria are critical for Iran’s regional supply chain.
Another militia, Harakat al-Nujaba, has also emerged as a powerful entity. Closely aligned with Hezbollah in Lebanon, it has previously claimed rocket and drone strikes against Israel and openly embraces Tehran’s “axis of resistance.”
Israel has already taken action to deter these forces. According to Walla, the IDF—working with Mossad—has conducted limited strikes in Iraq and Syria, targeting logistics centers and weapons depots near the border. Israeli officials have also sent “clear and threatening messages” to Baghdad through U.S. intermediaries, warning against tolerating militia aggression.
Washington’s Countermove
Mark Savaya’s arrival in Baghdad adds a new diplomatic dimension to the escalating confrontation. Declaring his mission, or the mission assigned to him, to “Make Iraq Great Again,” Savaya outlined a plan to strengthen the central government and eliminate armed groups operating outside state authority.
His strategy is expected to combine political pressure with economic statecraft—tightening financial controls, increasing transparency, and promoting Iraq’s energy independence to undercut Iranian leverage. “There is no place for militias operating outside the authority of the state,” Savaya stated, linking Iraq’s sovereignty directly to dismantling the proxy network now threatening Israel.
A Precarious Crossroads
The simultaneous rise in Israeli military vigilance and Washington’s renewed activism creates a volatile mix. If the U.S. succeeds in reining in Iran’s proxies and consolidating Iraqi state power, Israel’s concerns could ease. But if those militias feel cornered, they may strike preemptively—turning Israeli war games into reality.
For now, Iraq stands at the heart of a widening regional struggle. Once a buffer, it is fast becoming the next potential flashpoint in the long shadow war between Iran and its adversaries.