Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, has warned that the country is in a fragile state and could turn into something like Libya if urgent reforms are not made. Sectarian tensions are growing, and minority groups feel excluded from the political process, in particular the Christians, whose numbers have gone from over a million to less than 300,000. This instability threatens to fragment the country similarly to how Libya splintered after its civil war.

The transitional government has struggled to make progress with judicial and security reforms. The goodwill that followed the end of Assad’s rule is being lost as violence continues and divisions deepen among different communities. Some fear that divisions are being fomented by outside powers. 

To avoid turning into a divided, conflict-ridden state, the UN says Syria must change course — by including minorities, restoring trust, and strengthening institutions. Otherwise, the danger of widespread breakdown remains real.